The terrorist threat
The threat level
The threat level to the UK from international terrorism has been publicly available since August 2006.
The current threat level is SEVERE.
There are five threat levels:
- Low – an attack is unlikely
- Moderate – an attack is possible, but not likely
- Substantial – an attack is a strong possibility
- Severe – an attack is highly likely
- Critical – an attack is expected imminently
The current threat level is also shown on the Home Office (new window) website and the Security Service (MI5) (new window) website.
How do we decide threat levels?
In reaching a judgment on the appropriate threat level in any given circumstance several factors need to be taken into account. These include:
Available intelligence
Intelligence is part of the picture, and is used along with a wide range of other information to reach a judgment about the threat. These sources of information include the level and nature of current terrorist activity, comparison with events in other countries and previous attacks.
Terrorist capability
An examination of what is known about the capabilities of the terrorists in question and the method they may use based on previous attacks or from intelligence. This would also analyse the potential scale of the attack.
Terrorist intentions
Using intelligence and publicly available information to examine the overall aims of the terrorists and the ways they may achieve them including what sort of targets they would consider attacking.
Timescale
The threat level expresses the likelihood of an attack in the near term. We know from past incidents that some attacks take years to plan, while others are put together more quickly. In the absence of specific intelligence, a judgement will need to be made about how close an attack might be to fruition. Threat levels do not have any set expiry date, but are regularly subject to review in order to ensure that they remain current.
Who decides threat levels?
The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (new window) (JTAC) was created in 2003 as the UK’s centre for the analysis and assessment of international terrorism. JTAC is responsible for setting international terrorism threat levels and Ministers are informed of its decision.
What should the public do?
The public should always remain vigilant regardless of the current national threat level. If you have information about possible terrorist activity you should contact the Anti-Terrorist Hotline on 0800 789 321.
The Anti-Terrorist Hotline is for tip offs and confidential information. The public should call 999 if there is an immediate threat to life.
Read 'Threat Levels: The System to Assess the Threat from International Terrorism' (new window) on the Cabinet Office website.
